Milan–Sanremo 2026, the weather is a problem: headwinds are making UAE’s plans more difficult

At Milan–Sanremo, it’s not just the riders racing: the wind plays its part too. And the forecast for Saturday, March 21 could make it an uncomfortable protagonist, especially for UAE Team Emirates XRG and Tadej Pogačar’s plans. Weather predictions for the finale indicate a south-westerly breeze between 12 and 16 km/h, which translates into a headwind or cross-headwind in the decisive phases of the race. A detail that may seem marginal on paper, but on the climbs of the Classicissima it can radically change the race.

Attacking on the Cipressa will be more difficult

The most delicate section appears on the Cipressa, 27 km from the finish. With an average gradient of 4.1% and an estimated headwind of around 15 km/h, aerodynamic resistance increases significantly. Riders sitting on the wheel recover a huge aerodynamic disadvantage compared to those trying to force the pace. The practical result is that any selection attempt risks favoring the chasers rather than the attackers, making a solo move from the base of the climb unrealistic. For a team like UAE, built around the idea of delivering Pogačar to the front with a clear margin, this scenario forces a rethink of the approach.

The Poggio under rain and with a head-on Libeccio

The situation doesn’t improve on the Poggio: here the south-westerly wind blows directly against the riders along the 3.7 km climb, and forecasts add a risk of rain, especially if the average speed of the day has remained low due to the wind for much of the race. The 175 riders at the start will know that every attack will require more power than usual to create a real gap, while those staying in the slipstream pay a much lower aerodynamic cost. The finish on Via Roma could therefore be more crowded than expected.

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Final weather forecast for the race finale

Cipressa (16:11–16:46): overcast/damp, 15 km/h headwind.
Poggio (16:30–17:08): risk of rain, 16 km/h headwind.
Sanremo (16:37–17:14): light drizzle, 16 km/h headwind.

FAQ

What will the weather be like at Milan–Sanremo 2026?
Forecasts indicate overcast and damp conditions with a south-westerly headwind between 15 and 16 km/h on the Cipressa and Poggio, with a chance of drizzle at the finish.

Why does the wind disadvantage Pogačar and UAE?
UAE rely on Pogačar’s ability to make selections on climbs. With a headwind, attackers pay a high aerodynamic cost, making it easier to stay in the slipstream and harder to create a decisive gap.

Can the wind favor sprinters at Milan–Sanremo?
Yes. If the wind prevents selection on the final climbs, the group will reach Sanremo more compact, favoring a sprint that could involve riders like Philipsen, Girmay, or Magnier.